It is now generally accepted that Hillary only chance left is to pull a coup by negativity. She has to convince the Super Delegates that Obama cannot win in November. Sometimes this is done by directly attacking his persona and other times by spinning the reality on the ground — to pretend that she actually has a chance other than the back door. The fact of the matter is that Obama is beating and continues to beat Hillary regardless of negative attacks against him.
The irony is that nothing she does can really make a difference in terms of the way people are voting. The voters have been incredibly predictable since Super Tuesday. Hillary has won the states that she was predicted to win, and Obama has won the states he was predicted to win. The only real difference between the original predictions and the results has been how much Obama has reduced her leads in her states. For example, when Hillary is predicted to win big in a state, Obama almost always reduces that lead significantly and thus gains so many delegates that Hillary’s victory is almost unnoticeable in real terms.
Hillary would like us all to believe this isn’t happening. She was leading by double digits in Pennsylvania, but now her spinsters want us to think it will be a close race. That way they can call it a comeback. In reality, there is no comeback. Obama has caught up. The press also wants us to think that each race is up for grabs and extremely close. The only reason this race is still going is because the press needs us to keep tuned.
If you don’t believe me, check out today’s Washington Post polls. Obama’s popularity has not been negatively affected by either the Wright or the Elite scandals. Rather Obama has sustained similar popularity numbers since March. The negatives tactics have not touched his base. Ironically, during the same period, Hillary’s trustworthiness has been shattered, and now Obama enjoys a ten point lead over Hillary amongst Democrats. It looks like Obama voters are either not paying attention to the negativity or simply don’t care. It is only backfiring against Hillary. It seems like voters pretty much have their minds made up — at least once they are in physical proximity to the candidates, they vote very predictably.
This makes you wonder whether anything that any candidate says at the point in time can have any positive affect on their campaigns. Nothing seems to have affected the numbers — not Wright, not “Bitterness”, not any particular political position or speech. You wonder whether Obama’s speech on race was actually important to defuse the criticism about his pastor. I wonder whether both Obama and Hillary really need to be so obviously wrong and populist on trade. Voters aren’t looking as closely at the issues as they are at the candidates.
What about the arguments that Obama cannot beat McCain in November? First of all, the numbers simply do not show that Hillary would be a better candidate against McCain in November. Remember that the press now is almost exclusively focusing on Hillary and Obama. The press is also giving Hillary the benefit of the doubt because the Democratic primary is by far more interesting to the public than any election with John McCain. John McCain is simply boring and dull.
Just wait until McCain is put into the spot light. Either Hillary or Obama would bulldoze over him in any debate. Not only is he archaic on most issues, he has a pathological interpretation of patriotism. He comes off as a decent public speaker, but only because we have just lived through what has felt like two centuries of George W. Bush’s incomplete sentences. At best, McCain is like Bob Dole, a very solid, well-respected senior senator who can cross the aisle. But senior senators have never made good presidential candidates, and John McCain got his party’s nomination because the pickings were slim, not because any real enthusiasm.
So while McCain’s numbers may look good now, that is only because no one is looking at him. And when they do, most Americans will fall asleep. Ironically — Hillary is constantly complaining about how unfair the press treats her — both Hillary and the press have the exact same interests. They both very much need us to believe that McCain has a chance to win in November and that Hillary has a chance against Obama. The press is playing up the Hillary vs. Obama primary — Hillary with her scandal and intrigue and Obama with his youthful popularity — like the eternal cliffhanger Lost, where you’re at the seat of your pants but nothing really happens. It’s the only way to keep viewers tuned in. But when the Democratic race is over, everyone in the media knows that John McCain just isn’t ready for prime time.
So watch out during the next few weeks for more silly cries of scandal and absurd allegations against Obama. It is all the press and Hillary have left until the listening public completely tunes out with arrival of Mr. McCain.